As we review seven years of May market data, a clear pattern is emerging in Northeast Florida: inventory is rising while buyer activity is softening, leading to a growing surplus in available homes. This chart from The Market Distillery, using data from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors, offers a year-over-year look at how new listings, closings, and the supply surplus have evolved each May from 2018 through 2025.

What the Data Tells Us:

New Listings: Supply Is Steady to Strong

• The number of new listings in May 2025 was 3,864, surpassing the 7-year average of 3,573.

• While this isn’t the highest on the chart (that title belongs to 2022 with 4,056), it shows that sellers are still entering the market in strong numbers.

• For context, even in post-COVID years like 2021 and 2023, we saw similar supply levels, showing no significant decline in seller confidence.

Closings: Demand Is Tapering

• Closings in May 2025 came in at 2,714, which is below both the recent highs (3,334 in 2021) and the 7-year average of 2,459.

• This suggests that buyer demand has softened, potentially due to affordability pressures, higher interest rates, or market fatigue.

• The most dramatic gap occurred in 2020 (early pandemic), when closings fell to just 2,245, even as new listings remained relatively strong.

Surplus: The Growing Gap Between Listings and Sales

• The supply surplus calculated as new listings minus closings has more than doubled since 2023.

• In May 2025, the surplus hit 1,114 homes, following 1,150 in May 2024 the two highest levels on record.

• In contrast, between 2018 and 2021, the surplus hovered below 800, even dipping to just 378 in 2021, when demand was high and inventory tight.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers:

• More options, less pressure. You’re no longer competing in multiple-offer situations like the peak pandemic years.

• Negotiating power is increasing. With inventory up and homes staying on the market longer, you may be able to negotiate better terms, price reductions, or seller-paid closing costs.

• Take your time but not too long. While you have breathing room, the best-priced homes still move quickly. Having a clear plan and pre-approval will help you act decisively when the right home comes along.

For Sellers:

• Standing out is critical. With more homes on the market, your listing needs to shine. That means professional photography, accurate pricing, strong marketing, and possibly staging.

• Expect longer time on market. Overpricing or skipping prep work can lead to stale listings, which ultimately sell for less.

• Price strategically. Look at your local neighborhood comps homes priced right are still selling. Homes priced based on last year’s market often sit.

Market Balance Is Shifting

This growing surplus tells us we’re entering a more balanced, possibly buyer-friendly market. The Northeast Florida region, like much of the country, is adjusting from the overheated post-pandemic boom. While we’re not in a crash scenario, we’re clearly in a transition phase where data-driven pricing and patience are key.

If you’re planning to buy or sell in the coming months, having the right strategy and guidance could make a significant difference in your outcome.